EPP on the verge of victory by Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham

EPP on the verge of victory

by Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham

We forecast that the European People’s Party will hold on as the largest party in the European Parliament. The final set of EP election polls from across Europe over this last weekend suggest that the EPP will emerge as the largest group with 217 seats (29 per cent), 16 seats ahead of the Socialists and Democrats with 201 seats (27 per cent).

While we expect the EPP to lose over 40 seats compared to 2009, over the course of this election campaign the EPP member parties have consolidated their position in many countries, in particular in Poland, Hungary, and Germany. In contrast, while we expect S&D to make some gains since 2009, over the course of the campaign many of its parties have slipped back. This has particularly been the case in France, the UK, Poland, and Hungary. Meanwhile, support for anti-European parties on the populist right has risen in northern Europe, especially in the UK, France and Denmark, while support for radical left parties has risen in countries that have suffered economic downturn, particularly in Greece, Spain and Ireland.

But, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Taking into account the margins of error in the latest polls, and on the basis of 1000 simulations of what might happen, there still remains a 15% probability that S&D will be larger than the EPP.

Meanwhile, our final prediction is that ALDE will remain the third largest group, just ahead of GUE in fourth, with G/EFA in fifth, ECR sixth and EFD seventh. Here is the summary table of our final forecast for each member state compared to the current make-up of the EP.

A final caveat is that these numbers do not take account of potential party switches between groups or of which groups the currently non-attached parties will eventually join – in particular where the 18-20 MEPs from Italy’s 5 Star Movement will sit. For a final prediction taking these potential changes into account see the latest blog from the VoteWatch Europe team.

Whether looking at our final forecast based on current group membership or the potential shifts in group membership, the main trend overall will be a dramatic polarisation of the Parliament. There will be a significant increase in the proportion of MEPs on the right of the EPP, from approximately 16% in the current Parliament to 22% in the new one, as well as a slight increase in the proportion of MEPs on the left of S&D, from 12% to 13%.

Put another way, there will be a “squeezed middle”, with the three largest groups (EPP, S&D, ALDE) down from 72% of MEPs to only 65%. This will force EPP and S&D to work together to get anything done, since neither an EPP-led coalition without S&D nor an S&D-led coalition without EPP is likely to command a majority.

So, expect a “grand coalition” on most big issues, starting with the choice of the Commission President. On this front, Jean-Claude Juncker is now in poll position heading into the election